Ebrahim Sharifzadeh Aghdam; Mohammad Ajza Shokouhi
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
It can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of the comprehensive plan and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
It can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of the comprehensive plan and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border cities and central or peripheral areas) and legalvariables (adaptingeconomic policies in accordance with themacroeconomic policies of the country by2025) are the basis for developingmatrix of key properties and scenario planning.In this regard, the importance and necessity of the present study lies in the fact that the future border cities research is a process of systematic and calculated effort and a long-term scientific approach toward good urban governance. It seeks to reach a sufficient understanding of strategic research areas, benefit economy of the country and especially border communities through wise management of space and the introduction of related technologiesand offer desirable scenarios for the development of border cities based on the patterns of democratic and ecosystem management.Accordingly, the present study demonstrates a kind of creativity and innovation in the field of strategic planning based on every aspects of sustainable urban development while emphasizing on the prospective and environmental aspects that are an inseparable part of geography and urban planning studies.
Materials & Methods
The present study seeks to answer the main research question which is, what are the key indicators and factors influencing the development analysis of Piranshahr border town?
In this regard, the present study takes advantage of descriptive-analyticaland documentary investigations of strategic planningalong withrelated questionnaires in the framework of Delphi model and software analysis. Based on a consultation with scholars familiar with the status and conditions of the region within the dialectical framework of urban issues, a statistical population of 50, and 23 variables were identified for the present research. The selected variables were classified in 8 general categorizations as the primary variables of the research.Getting output from the Wizards software based on the scores entered into the matrix, the normalized and the standardized matrices were calculated, and the possible scenarios were categorized based on an analysis of the descriptor compatibility. Then, the goals set for strategic planning of Piranshahr, effective factors in strategy development, a competitive map, level of competitiveness in Tamarchinborderand finally challenges and opportunities of each domain were expressed in the framework of the Meta SWOT Strategic Model.
Results & Discussion
Based on experts’ opinions and software output, it can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of comprehensive plans and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border cities and central or peripheral areas) and legalvariables (adaptingeconomic policies in accordance with themacroeconomic policies of the country by2025) are the basis for developingmatrix of key properties and scenario planning.
Finally, the status of key driving forces in cross-border strategic planning of Tamarchinborderand its effects on the development of Piranshahr city over the coming 15 years are explained in the form of three desirable, intermediate and disaster scenarios. Also based on the obtained results, Sairanband border in Bane had the highest score in enhancing the quality of life in border cities and adopting economic policies in accordance with the country’s macroeconomic policies by2025. Thus, Sairanbandis the most important rival of Tamarchin border.
Conclusion
The present study has proposeda desirable model for the development of Piranshahrborder town using a strategic approach toward the sustainability issue in border cities and taking advantage of indexes such as “cultural, human, political, economic, and physical development” indexes. It alsoapplies the pattern of futures studies used in wizard and strategic scenarios. Thus, factors affecting the level of urban development in Piranshahrwere classified based on 5general classes, sub-variables and a 23×23 matrix. So only by putting the indices in the distribution chart, a very favorable situation of the distribution of boundary related variables can be presented. In the context of the above mentioned results and according to the scenario formulation table, it can be concluded that the results of the present study are to a large extent applicable. Moreover, they can be applied for scenario-building and guide management toward the development of border towns within the framework of structural planning.
Mehdi Bazargan; Mohammad Ajza Shokouhi
Abstract
Introduction Nowadays, theft -especially residential burglary-is considered as one of the most common and frequent crimes in many countries of the world, including Iran. As such, it has become a pervasive and serious problem with various social, economic, and security-related aspects. Investigating ...
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Introduction Nowadays, theft -especially residential burglary-is considered as one of the most common and frequent crimes in many countries of the world, including Iran. As such, it has become a pervasive and serious problem with various social, economic, and security-related aspects. Investigating geographical dimensions of this crime facilitates the process of exploring this phenomenon. Space and its special features play an important and undeniable role in crime commitment, because space has always been considered as one of the most important factors in commitment of financial crimes such as residential burglary. Spatial analysis and geographical investigation of crimes seek to provide a spatial presentation of criminal actions, crime dispersion, and crime hotspots. This type of crime analysis basically aims to provide a model for decreasing crime commitment in urban spaces. Accordingly, the present research seeks tomodel spatial diffusion of residential burglary crimes in MashhadusingHogstrand’s spatial diffusion theory. Materials and methods The present study is performed based on descriptive-analytic and qualitative methods. The research sample includes cases of residential burglary committed in Mashhad in the 2011-2017period. Data analysis was performed using ArcGIS software. Case study area includes Mashhad, with an area of about 35187 hectares, a population of more than 3057679, and a population density of 87 people per hectare. Results and discussion Police reports in Mashhad suggest that the highest crime rates belong to the 2nd and 3thdistricts, and the lowest rates belong toSamen (around Razavi Shrine), the 12th, and 8thdistricts. 70% of crimes in Mashhad are committed in informal settlements including the 2nd, 3th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 10thdistricts. However, only 10.6% of the city area and 29.3% of its population belong to these districts. Furthermore, the highest crime rates have been reported in 2017. In 2011, only two major crime hotspots were observed in Mashahd (in the 2nd and 3thdistricts). Results suggest that crimes have spread from one place to anotherin Mashhad, which indicates a close relationship between crime and distance factor. In other words, proximity to a crime hotspothas resulted in rapid spread of crimes, and due to the short distance, nearby places have been affected more quickly. Informal settlements of Mashhad are located in eastern, northern, and northeastern districts,which contain 99% of crime hotspots. This indicates that spatial autocorrelation of crimes in informal settlements of Mashhad is relatively high, which has led to formation of crime hotspots in these districts. However, moving from marginalized areas towards southern districts of Mashhad (more prosperous regions), spatial correlation of crimes decreases, and lead to formation of 99% of cold spots. Conclusion The present research has investigated the spatial diffusion pattern of crimes in Mashhad in 2011-2017period.To reach this end, crime hotspots were investigated by quantitative methods such as Kernel density, Moran coefficient, and crime hotspot analysis. Results suggest that the highest crime rates are reported in the 2nd and 3thdistricts, while the lowest rates are reported in Samen (around Razavi Shrine), the 12th, and 8th regions. In fact, 70% of crimes in Mashhad are committed in informal settlements including the 2nd, 3th, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 10thdistricts. Moreover, statistics indicate that for every100000 people,anaverage of 75/2 cases of crimes have been reported in the 2011-2017period.Results of Moran coefficient for spatial diffusion of crimes indicated the presence of a cluster distribution of crimes in Mashhad. Meanwhile, spatial diffusion pattern of crimes in Mashhad suggests that the first crime hotspots were formed in northern, eastern, and northeastern districtsof Mashhad, and crimes have spread from these to other districts (more central and prosperous regions such as the 8th and 9thdistricts). In fact, investigations suggest that crimes are spreading from informal settlements to other regionsof Mashhad, and acompatible spatial diffusion pattern of crimes exists in this city.
